Actuarial pricing, capital modelling and reserving

Pricing Squad

Issue 36 -- July, August 2020

Welcome back to Pricing Squad

Pricing Squad is the newsletter for fellow pricing practitioners and actuaries in general insurance.

Today's issue provides some updates.

Update 1 - Risk alert for Silicon Valley underwriters

Patreon, a platform popular with podcasts, journalists, and comedians faces significant legal peril due a fascinating quirk of California law that no one seemed to have noticed.

So Patreon is in trouble and you heard read it in Pricing Squad first. Now the judge is allowing mass arbitration against Patreon, imposing enormous cost on the company even in the case that Patreon wins that arbitration. And more claims against them are probably forthcoming allging tortious interference and deceptive practices. Other platforms are also vulnerable.

Update 2 - COVID predictions

Three months after my March estimate, the Italian death count is just under 35,000. So the estimate is 55% below the target and this will increase somewhat as time passes.

A 55% error is significant but my original estimate is still the most accurate early estimate that I am aware of. The main message, being "keep calm" seems to be vindicated also.

On the other hand, one report claims that 200,000 might have died due to the lockdown in the UK

Meanwhile, Faculty and Institute of Actuaries is choosing to investigate me for unauthorized speech. One anonymous allegation mentions my COVID-19 post.

Update 3 - Downing Street Home Insurance Price Index

Copyright © 2020 Jan Iwanik, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to updates from We publish data and analysis for informational and educational purposes only. You can unsubscribe from this list by emailing us.